The widening gap between what the administration is saying about the war in Iraq and the war on terror is somewhat disturbing. You know something has got to be wrong when the agencies are quietly reporting things are much worse than the press releases say - they want to be sure when the shit actually hits the fan that they had covered their own ass...

The Guardian reports that the [National Intelligence Estimate] document "contradicts" recent optimistic assessments from the Bush administration. It also "furthers the divisions between the military and politicians in their assessment of the impact of US policy in Iraq."

Posted by Chris at 06:42 PM in Politics, Security | Comments (0)

Posted by Chris at 08:15 PM in Computing, Politics | Comments (0)

More interesting stuff from the book I mentioned in a previous post. Different ways of dealing with war, foreign policy, and the difficulties of consensus building make for very interesting contrasts among the different presidents. It is especially interesting now that we are approaching the end of the Bush Jr. administration, and we can begin to contemplate what his legacy will be like. I am not a particular fan of his, but he was reelected, so I am curious how positively or negatively he will be viewed through the fuzzy lens of history. More of the passages I run into in this book make me think that he will not be viewed very positively.

Our most successful wartime presidents have been those who systematically built a consensus in the Congress, the press, and the country before taking up arms, just as the most ineffective leaders have been those who tried to impose a military policy on the nation in which it didn't believe. The freedom allowed America's chiefs in the making of war and crafting of peace has also burdened them with considerable risks, and it is in this arena at the reputations of some of the country's most and least successful presidents have been made. (p. 109)

Apart from the Spanish American war in 1898, the Persian Gulf struggle, in large part because it lasted nearly 6 weeks and cost only 350 American lives... [George Bush Sr.] wisdom in establishing national and international support for an American military action of this magnitude provided an instructive contrast to the many instances of 20th-century gunboat and secret diplomacy, which did more to erode confidence in the countries democratic institutions than to advance the national interest. (p. 119)

Posted by Chris at 08:50 PM in Politics | Comments (0)

Don't worry about a crash, just a much slower or maybe nonexistent rate of home price growth. Global Insight with some recent data:

New data released by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) reveal that price appreciation is now nearly at a standstill in almost all of the top 20 markets, and in some, prices are actually declining.

Posted by Chris at 07:05 PM in Economy, Planning | Comments (0)

I have been reading a really interesting book, Hail to the Chief: The Making and Unmaking of American Presidents, by Robert Dallek. The book examines what qualities have made our great presidents great and conversely, our bad presidents bad. With the upcoming elections looking to be something of a referendum on the complete Republican control on Washington and the relative unpopularity of the president and many of his policies, this book makes pretty interesting reading -- what are the things that have made our popular past presidents better than their more forgettable brethren? How much does having a strong vision for the country matter? Do you have to be able to get along with opposing politicians?

Here are a couple good excerpts. I will probably end up posting some more:

Democratic Openness:
Few developments in American political life have been more destructive to presidential authority than the rise of a secret government. While doctrinaire adherence to an ideology, or a stiffbacked presidential personality... have been detriments to sensible, innovative leadership, so, too, has been the conviction of some chief executives at secret, unilateral actions could take the place of public debate. Without it, presidents have denied themselves the chance to consider alternative means of dealing with difficult problems. Moreover, when their machinations came to light, as they invariably did, they proved highly damaging to the president's credibility and his ability to govern. (p. 77)

Electoral Mandates:
In the 52 presidential elections since the birth of the Republic in 1787, 16 presidents have gained the White House with less than 50% of the popular vote.... Even most presidents who were elected with a popular majority of one less than 56% of the ballot. Only 17 elections have produced decisive margins of more than 55%. (p. 84)

Posted by Chris at 08:59 PM in Politics | Comments (0)